Planning engine · stochastic projections
Will this plan actually fund the life?
The same test the large planning platforms run before they sign off a retirement plan: 1,500 market paths against Jordan & Maya Ellis's own balance sheet, priced on the capital preservation mix. The projection is seeded, so the numbers are reproducible and a filed plan can be audited. Set the risk profile to change the mix.
Probability of success
87%
Paths that never run out to age 95
Median ending balance
$3.9M
Poor-market case (10th pct): $0
Mix assumption
4.8%
Nominal return, 5.3% volatility · 20/60/20
To reach 85%
On track
Current saving already clears the 85% bar
Assumptions
Tune the plan and re-run
Failing paths ran out at about age 92.
Balance bands · 1,500 market paths
Where the portfolio lands, best case to worst
The straight-line figure is what a single-rate calculator shows. The gap between it and the 10th percentile is the risk a brochure projection hides.
Goal funding
Each written goal, priced and scored
Clear credit cards in 18 months, fully fund both 529s for in-state tuition, retire at 60 on $8,000/mo, replace one car in cash by 2029
Target
$8,000
Needed monthly
$0
Odds
100%
Projected to be 999% funded in 3 years on current saving.
Cash flow & net worth
Year by year, working life into retirement
| Year | Age | Income | Spending | Saved | Net worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 38 | $148,000 | $109,800 | $38,200 | $92,744 |
| 2031 | 43 | $171,573 | $127,288 | $44,284 | $413,905 |
| 2036 | 48 | $198,900 | $147,562 | $51,338 | $851,872 |
| 2041 | 53 | $230,579 | $171,065 | $59,514 | $1,441,676 |
| 2046 | 58 | $267,304 | $198,311 | $68,993 | $2,227,948 |
| 2051 | 63 | $309,879 | $229,897 | $79,982 | $3,267,392 |
| 2056 | 68 | $58,254 | $213,211 | -$154,956 | $3,875,924 |
| 2061 | 73 | $67,533 | $247,170 | -$179,637 | $3,971,374 |
| 2066 | 78 | $78,289 | $286,537 | -$208,248 | $3,917,481 |
Simulated results are illustrative, not a guarantee. Return and volatility assumptions come from long-run US index history held on the reference desk; a Monte Carlo projection cannot price a market it has never seen.